Will Antoine Griezmann make it to the 2026 World Cup with France? We analyze statistics, current events, and his role with Les Bleus on their way to the most important tournament on the planet.
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WILL THE CHAMPION BE DECIDED BY PENALTIES?
Penalty shootouts: that moment when your heart stops, the stadium falls silent, and dreams are decided with a single shot. Since their inception, penalty shootouts have been the protagonists of some of the most epic—and heartbreaking—chapters in football history. And of course, many are wondering if the 2026 World Cup will also have a final decided this way, from the penalty spot. In this article, we'll tell you everything: how many times it's happened, which teams are lethal from penalties, which ones tremble, and what the statistics say about this possibility. Get your coffee (or mate) ready, because a rollercoaster of emotions is coming up.
Finals decided by penalties in history
Since penalty shootouts were implemented in World Cups (1978 onwards), several champions and semi-finalists have been decided this way, although it has only happened a few times in the final itself.
How many finals were decided by penalties?
Italy 1994: Brazil vs Italy – Brazil won (3-2 on penalties)
Germany 2006: Italy vs France – Italy won (5-3 on penalties)
Qatar 2022: Argentina vs France – Argentina won (4-2 on penalties)
So, 3 of the last 10 World Cup finals were decided by penalties. That gives us a historical probability of 30%... and growing. Especially because modern football is becoming increasingly even, physical, and tactical.
Other historical moments from the penalty spot
Argentina 1990: Germany eliminated England on penalties in the semis.
Korea-Japan 2002: Spain and Korea drew; South Korea advanced on penalties.
Brazil 2014: Costa Rica eliminated Greece on penalties in the round of 16.
Penalties are an emotional gamble, but they also involve science, strategy, and, of course, a dose of nerves that no simulator can replicate. If the past has taught us anything, it's that anything can happen in the World Cup… even a final ending in maximum drama.
Specialists, Traumas, and Probabilities
Although they may seem like a coin toss, penalty kicks have patterns. Some countries are known for being cold and efficient; others, for trembling when the lights go out. And if we talk about statistics… there's plenty to discuss.
The Kings of the Penalty Spot
Germany: 4 out of 5 penalty shootouts won. 80% success rate.
Argentina: 6 out of 7 penalty shootouts won. 86% success rate (the best).
Croatia: 4 out of 5 penalty shootouts won in recent World Cups.
Fun fact: Emiliano “Dibu” Martínez saved 4 penalties in Qatar 2022. His performance was key to Argentina's victory. Since then, national teams have been training the psychology and execution of penalties more than ever.
Who suffers the most from the penalty spot?
England: lost 4 out of 5 penalty shootouts between 1990 and 2012.
Spain: 3 penalty shootout losses since 2002.
Mexico: has never won a penalty shootout in a senior World Cup.
Some historically dominant national teams don't fare well with penalties. Whether it's due to pressure, preparation, or pure bad luck, the data confirms it. But every generation can break the streak. And if you're wondering: yes, several coaching staffs employ sports psychologists just to work on penalties. The World Cup is no longer won solely with dribbling skills. Will there be penalties in 2026? With an expanded format of 48 teams and longer matches, the 2026 World Cup is expected to have more penalty shootouts than ever before. In Qatar 2022 there were 5 shootouts. In 2026 there could be 7 or more? Easy. And the grand final… could also go to penalties, like in 2022.
How to train for and win penalties
Penalties are a mix of technique, composure, and timing. In the lead-up to tournaments, national teams practice the technical aspects hundreds of times, but also the mental side. Because the biggest rival at that moment… is yourself.
Physical and mental preparation
Goalkeepers analyze videos of opposing penalty takers.
Players practice penalties at the end of training sessions, when they are physically exhausted.
Press environments are simulated: shouting, music, timers.
But beyond practice, penalties are won with confidence. A clear example was France in 2018: Deschamps chose the penalty takers before the tournament, and each one was assigned their zone of the goal. Without improvisation.
The role of the goalkeeper
Today, goalkeepers are more prominent than ever. "Dibu," Neuer, Courtois, Livaković… all have been heroes in penalty shootouts. Some dance, others intimidate, but all study their opponents as if it were a final exam.
Fun fact: in Qatar, 71% of the penalties taken in shootouts were guessed correctly by the goalkeeper. And even then, not all of them were saved.
In conclusion: yes, there is a growing probability that the 2026 World Cup will be decided by penalties. If that moment comes, prepare to suffer, scream, cover your eyes... and love this blessed sport even more.
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